Monday, January 30, 2006

My Oscar nomination predictions! (Or, how wrong will I be this year?)

Yes, I'm back after a month full of work and unrelated distractions. And what better way for me to begin again with what my friends have come to know as my annual frequently wrong predictions for the Academy Awards nominations. It's this time of year that I become, temporarily, an honorary gay man when it comes to my obsession over the flood of award shows that infests the popular culture. And the Oscars, for all their high-mindedness and arrogance, are the granddaddy of them all. So I've been doing this for a while now - sometimes in actual print for pay, but always for my posse of close buds. Now that I have a blog, I'd thought I'd share.

There are many ways to do this, and I've done most of them. Often I will list my picks in terms of locks, likely-to-be-nominated, and darkhorses - the best way to hedge my bets (i.e. cheat without cheating). This year, I'm feeling frisky, even though for the second year in a row this is a case of knowing who's likely to win the whole thing but not necessarily the challengers who will lose to the winners come Oscar night. Nevertheless, they're only predictions. It's not like I'm putting money on this stuff or anything. Thus, my ideas for the major categories. Tune in to E! or your local morning news tomorrow at 8:30 a.m. et/5:30 a.m. pt (!) to see how wrong I really was.

Brokeback Mountain
Good Night, and Good Luck
Walk the Line

Philip Seymour Hoffman, Capote
Terrence Howard, Hustle and Flow (I just have a feeling about this one. Even though the genres are completely different, this has Johnny Depp in Pirates of the Caribbean written all over it.)
Heath Ledger, Brokeback Mountain
Joaquin Phoenix, Walk the Line
David Strathairn, Good Night, and Good Luck

Joan Allen, The Upside of Anger (This may be more wishful thinking than anything. I'm perfectly prepared for this one to go to Keira Knightly or Charlize Theron instead. See, I'm hedging again!)
Dame Judi Dench, Mrs. Henderson Presents
Felicity Huffman, Transamerica (!!!!)
Reese Witherspoon, Walk the Line
Ziyi Zhang, Memoirs of a Geisha (There a touch of make-up about this one, as in "We should have nominated you for Crouching Tiger - sorry!")

George Clooney, Syriana
Matt Dillion, Crash (Either him or Don Cheadle - or maybe both)
Paul Giamatti, Cinderella Man (See Ziyi Zhang above, i.e. Sideways)
Jake Gyllenhaal, Brokeback Mountain
Bob Hoskins, Mrs. Henderson Presents

Amy Adams, Junebug
Maria Bello, A History of Violence
Scarlett Johanssen, Match Point
Rachel Weisz, The Constant Gardner
Michelle Williams, Brokeback Mountain

Woody Allen, Match Point (More of a celebration that Woody can still make movies than anything else)
George Clooney, Good Night, and Good Luck
David Cronenberg, A History of Violence (Again, wishful thinking)
Ang Lee, Brokeback Mountain
Steven Spielberg, Munich

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